Tuesday, 22 December 2015

Why Crude Oil Crashed to 11Yr Low :

Mining driven economy Russia was trying to produce more oil but as they had plan to occupy crimea, and crimea is gas rich area Ukraine dont wan to lose.things lead to sanctions on russia to stop oil exports, russia had long term supply contracts with european economies and some asian economies . all those contracts got cancelled due to sanctions, mean while saudi wanted to increase their customer base (earlier russian customers) and continued to produce more oil and entered longterm supply contracts at a steep discount to market prices, meanwhile CHina slowdown added for crash in all commodities, USA produced more oil in shale gas reserves so that they can stop importing oil (as everyone know they wanted to do petro $ recycling.) and bring back excess $ in global economy through oil production and quantitative easing shutdown and rising interest rates. USA warned Saudi to stop oil output but saudi says , i wont, meanwhile obama came to india and during that trip saudi king died , he immedialetly went to saudi (not in his schedule by cancelling agra trip) to request new saudi king to cut oil outout, saudi says i have 900 bln $ reserves and i m not having pblm with low rates , saudi and iran are enemies with in next month IRAn sanctions lifted and new oil will hit market around 5 lkah barrels per day (global consumtpyion is 80 mln barrels per day) , so saudi want to capture market before iran does it, yestrday bill passed in american congress that USA can export oil now after 50 years of exports ban, (earlieer they were consuming 25% of global out put). USA wants saudi to cut output, USA saudi wants Russia bankrupt , russia is safe as they are not producing at cheap rates, USA exports oil for petro USD back, SAudi oil to increase customers, IRAN oil after 30 years of sanctions, to hit market, my target 20 $ / barrel

- Sfm Praveen 

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